4.19.2007
Is AI Engineering the Shortest Path to a Positive Singularity?
Is AI Engineering the Shortest Path to a Positive Singularity?
From the article:
Christine Peterson - Singularity Institute
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From the article:
- As a result of the specifics of my AI research, I have come to a position somewhat more radical than that of most Singularity pundits. Kurzweil estimates 2045 for the Singularity, and 2029 for human-level AI via a brain emulation methodology. I think this is basically a plausible scenario (Though I do think that, if a human-level AI takes 16 years to create a Singularity, this slow pace will be due to intentional forbearance and caution rather than technological obstacles. I believe that a human-level AI, once it exists, will be able to improve its intelligence at a rapid rate, making Singularity imminent within months or a few years at most). But I also think a much more optimistic scenario is plausible.
At the 2006 conference of the World Transhumanist Association, I gave a talk entitled "Ten Years To the Singularity (If We Really, Really Try)"6. That talk summarized my perspective fairly well (briefly and nontechnically, but accurately). I believe that the creation of a superhumanly intelligent AI system is possible within 10 years, and maybe even within a lesser period of time (3-5 years). Predicting the exact number of years is not possible at this stage. But the point is, I believe that I have arrived at a detailed software design that is capable of giving rise to intelligence at the human level and beyond. If this is correct, it means that the possibility is there to achieve Singularity faster than even Kurzweil and his ilk predict. Furthermore, having arrived at one software design that appears Singularity-capable, I have become confident there are many others as well. There may be other researchers besides me, actively working on projects with the capability of achieving massive levels of intelligence.
But the "If We Really, Really Try" part is also critical. My own software design, the Novamente Cognition Engine, is large and complex. It would take me decades to complete the implementation, testing and teaching on my own. If the advent of superhuman AI is to be accelerated in the manner I'm describing, a coordinated effort among a team of gifted computer scientists will be required. Currently I am trying to pull together such an effort in the context of a small software company, Novamente LLC7. I am optimistic about this venture. However, objectively, it is certainly not impossible that neither I nor anyone else with a viable AI design will succeed in pulling together the needed resources. In this case, the Kurzweil-style projections may come out correct—but not because the Singularity couldn't have arisen sooner if people had focused their efforts on the right things.
Christine Peterson - Singularity Institute
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