2.17.2007
Robot-driven cars on roads by 2030
Robot-driven cars on roads by 2030
From the article:
From the article:
- The first wave of intelligent robot cars, capable of understanding and reacting to the world around them, will be tested this November in a competition run by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)...
Thrun, who was speaking at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in San Francisco, is a member of the Stanford team participating in the DARPA competition, which will take place on November 3.
Stanford's entrant "Junior" is a converted 2006 Volkswagen Passat whose steering, throttle and brakes all have been modified by engineers to be completely computer-controllable.
An array of lasers fitted on the car bumpers, radar and global positioning systems feed data into the on-board computer to determine its location and position.
Thrun predicted that leaps in artificial intelligence would lead to driverless cars on the roads by 2030.
"Today we can drive about 100 miles (160 kilometers) before human assistance is necessary, by 2010 I expect this to go 1,000 miles (1,160 kilometers), by 2020 up to a million miles (1.6 million kilometers)," he said."
- "I think they'll be on the battlefield by around 2015," he said. "It is going to make sense to use them in situations such as convoys, or in hostile environments where there is danger to personnel."
Comments:
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With human-brain scale computing just around the corner (perhaps by 2045), I would hope they'd be in a better position to offer hands-free driving sooner than 2030... maybe by 2020?
My understanding of computer controlled cars was that car companies were not focussing on them because of liability issues. They don't want to be sued when your robot car crashes. That said, they can already parallel park themselves.
Actually, they can park themselves... badly. The new Lexus self-park feature was demoed on The Today Show and it was an utter embarrassment for them. It was very touchy and required such precision on the part of the driver (to position a "target" to park the car into), that the car "gave up" and wouldn't park. I'd give it another 5 or 6 years to fine tune self-parking.
These estimates are way off.
Why? because while there isn't as market for autonomous cars, there is a market for autonomous forklifts,and other utility vehicles. There is a market for robotic slaves. There is a market for enhanced computer power
All those together can pull the secondary market forward faster.
The technology is already here, just not the money to develop it.
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Why? because while there isn't as market for autonomous cars, there is a market for autonomous forklifts,and other utility vehicles. There is a market for robotic slaves. There is a market for enhanced computer power
All those together can pull the secondary market forward faster.
The technology is already here, just not the money to develop it.
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