Robotic Nation Evidence

DARPA Finalizes 2007 Urban Challenge

First prize: $2 million

From the press release:

The Urban Challenge will feature fully autonomous ground vehicles conducting simulated military supply missions safely and effectively in a mock urban area. The race will take place on November 3, 2007, at an undisclosed location in the western United States. Robotic vehicles will attempt to complete a 60-mile course through traffic in less than six hours operating under their own computer-based control, and the three fastest finishers will receive cash prizes. To succeed, vehicles must obey traffic laws while merging into moving traffic, navigating traffic circles, negotiating busy intersections, and avoiding obstacles.

This is a major step up over last year's course. Urban streets and traffic require much more accuracy. But it is safe to assume that by 2008 or 2009, engineers will be meeting this challenge.

How many years do you think it will be before consumers can sit back in a fully autonomous car that drives itself from point A to point B without any human intervention? Make a predicition.